PREDICTION:  The mobile phone is the primary connection tool for most people in the world. In 2020, while "one laptop per child" and other initiatives to bring networked digital communications to everyone are successful on many levels, the mobile phone—now with significant computing power—is the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price. Telephony is offered under a set of universal standards and protocols accepted by most operators internationally, making for reasonably effortless movement from one part of the world to another. At this point, the "bottom" three-quarters of the world's population account for at least 50% of all people with Internet access—up from 30% in 2005.

Expert Respondents’ Reactions (N=578)
Mostly Agree  77%
Mostly Disagree  22%
Did Not Respond  *%

All Respondents’ Reactions (N=1,196)
Mostly Agree  81%
Mostly Disagree  19%
Did Not Respond  *%
Note:  Since results are based on a nonrandom sample, a margin of error cannot be computed. The “prediction” was composed to elicit responses and is not a formal forecast.

Respondents were presented with a brief set of information outlining the status quo of the issue 2007 that prefaced this scenario. It read:

According to the UN/ITU World Information Society Report 2007, there has been some progress in improving digital inclusion: In 1997 the nearly three-quarters of the world's population who lived in low-income and lower-middle-income economies accounted for just 5% of the world's population with Internet access² By 2005, they accounted for just over 30%. A number of commercial and non-profit agencies are combining forces to bring inexpensive laptop computers to remote regions of the world to connect under-served populations. In addition, by the end of 2008 more than half the world's population is expected to have access to a mobile phone.