PREDICTION: Next-generation research will be used to improve the current Internet; it won’t replace it. In 2020, the original Internet architecture is in the continuing process of refinement – it hasn’t been replaced by a completely new system. Research into network innovation, with help from the continued acceleration of technologies used to build, maintain, enhance, and enlarge the system, has yielded many improvements. Search, security, and reliability on the Internet are easier and more refined, but those who want to commit crimes and mischief are still able to cause trouble.
Expert Respondents’ Reactions (N=578)
Mostly Agree 78%
Mostly Disagree 6%
Did Not Respond 16%
All Respondents’ Reactions (N=1,196)
Mostly Agree 80%
Mostly Disagree 6%
Did Not Respond 14%
Note: Since results are based on a nonrandom sample, a margin of error cannot be computed. The “prediction” was composed to elicit responses and is not a formal forecast.
Respondents were presented with a brief set of information outlining the status quo of the issue 2007 that prefaced this scenario. It read:
Due to concerns over Internet security, reliability, and complexity, the National Science Foundation in the US is funding research into the building of a "next-generation" or "clean-slate" Internet. The NSF initiatives include the Global Environment for Networking Innovation (GENI – building a test network on which researchers will be able to try out their ideas) and Future Internet Network Design (FIND). The European Union is funding research through its Future Internet Research and Experimentation (FIRE) program. Creating an all-new Internet might solve problems like viruses, spam, phishing, and worms. But it would cost billions of dollars and there is a debate among experts about how long it might take. If a next-generation Internet is built, some people are concerned it will be characterized by intrinsic features that will allow governments and corporations to exercise more control over what happens online. So, the constant question remains: How do we raise barriers against spam, cybercrime, and terrorism and provide secure systems for digital transactions without infringing on civil liberties?